We begin by inquiring why the Zardari government introduced the NRO bill in parliament in the first place when it knew that even if adopted as a law, the Supreme Court (SC) would strike it down. The answer to this question lies in the fact that it was hoping to occupy the high moral ground in case of defeat. It was counting to do so in two ways. First, it would claim that parliament, which represents the general will and is sovereign, had adopted it and that the SC by rejecting the law was not only going against the will of the people but also violating the principle according to which each pillar of the state enjoys autonomy. Second, it would claim that the SC is a highly partisan body that is targeting the PPP for its opposition to the restoration of Chief Justice (CJ) Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. For this purpose, it unleashed the former Attorney General Latif Khosa and former Chief Justice Dogar who, in their separate press conferences, openly levelled serious charges of bias against the latter. Besides, the PPP Information Secretary Fauzia Wahab engaged in broadsides against the CJ. And this was just an opening spell.
Why did the MQM ditch the PPP? Some analysts believe that it did so because it wants to wangle concessions from their coalition partner in the Sindh government in the shape of induction of more MQM ministers and greater empowerment of their existing ministers who are as toothless as their PPP counterparts in the Punjab government. Besides, it wants the continuation of the existing local bodies system, which is likely to be replaced in the near future because the incumbent mayor of Karachi is from the MQM. Others hold that endorsement of the NRO could have hampered the MQM’s efforts to get a political foothold in Punjab and other areas of Pakistan, which it is aiming at as a clean party committed to the welfare of the masses. Still others contend that the MQM’s decision is motivated by the fact that its workers and leaders have no more benefit to derive from the NRO as they got the cases against them (ranging from 3,700 to 4,500 depending on whether the total number is 5,000 or 6,000) quashed by the courts before the expiry of the NRO.
All these considerations may have factored in the MQM’s decision not to back the NRO bill but the most critical consideration appears to be its desire to please the establishment, which apparently wants the exit of Zardari. There is a general consensus that Altaf Hussain did what he did on a signal from the establishment. It is true that there is no evidence to prove this. However, the history of MQM’s relations with the establishment suggests that such a conclusion may not be far from the truth. In this regard, one needs to keep in mind that the MQM always had a close liaison with the latter. In fact, it is an open secret that it owed its creation to the establishment, which midwifed it to counter the PPP threat in Sindh. It is true that at times it fell into the establishment’s disfavour, particularly during the 1990s when the army mounted operations against it. However, despite these hiccups its relations with the establishment survived and have continued to flourish as attested by its close association with the Musharraf regime.
Why has the establishment that had accepted the PPP government after Musharraf’s exit now turned hostile towards it? The explanation for this lies in Zardari’s personality and performance with which the establishment is not satisfied on several counts. First, there is lack of governance and the Zardari government appears to be utterly rudderless. Second, there is rampant corruption in which he and others are allegedly involved. To compound the matter he is not willing to show the door to the latter. Third, he is perceived as America’s man echoing his master’s voice as evidenced by the Kerry-Lugar Bill (KLB), which he tried to promote even though the establishment viewed it as an American instrument to get Pakistan’s nuclear programme capped and the Pakistan army and the ISI controlled. Fourth, the Zardari government has allowed the Americans to get themselves installed in Islamabad, which allows them space to indulge in espionage activities in Pakistan. Finally, Zardari is perceived as being soft on India.
There was some opposition to the NRO bill when the PPP introduced it in parliament from the media, political parties not represented in parliament, and to some extent from the PML-N. However, following Altaf Hussain’s refusal to support it, the opposition political parties and even the PPP allies who were sitting on the fence understood the cryptic message behind his decision. They started opposing it openly and vociferously. For example, the JUI-F, which was thinking of abstaining, made a somersault. Similarly, the PML-N, whose leadership was less than fully opposed to the bill, also decided to do so. As far as the PML-Q is concerned, its stand on the NRO was at best ambiguous. Following Altaf Hussain’s decision, it too decided to oppose it.
Finally, what is likely to be the denouement of the current NRO drama? It appears as if the MQM chief’s stand is a decisive one in the current political situation. This is attested by the fact that following his decision, not only is the NRO dead and buried forever but it also seems to have set the stage for the implementation of the minus-one formula or the political disempowerment of Zardari by the abolition of the 17th amendment. The former solution can come about through impeachment or ineligibility of the president, both of which, following the dramatic announcement by Altaf Hussain, are no longer in the realm of impossibility. It is not clear what the establishment would be content with. However, one thing at this juncture looks certain. It is that Zardari’s days as president are numbered unless he is ready to stay as a figurehead.DT
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